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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have nearly all player near a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Unclear

The latter part of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.